Choosing A Home Mortgage, Carefully
Author: admin // Category: Mortgage // Comments (0) // Add CommentWhat if someone were selling Gold for $500 an ounce and nobody stood in line to buy it. That is almost what we are faced with in the mortgage market today. At no time in recent history have mortgages stayed at such amazing low rates for such a long time. Since 1960, fixed 30 year loans have typically been over 6%, sometimes well over. Today in September of 2010, we are at under 5%. A 1% saving on a $250,000 loan is a $200 a month difference.
And yet the consumers of such loans seem afraid to take advantage. I understand why there is a reluctance to enter the housing market even at the current depressed prices, but there are literally millions of homeowners in the US who would qualify for a refinance who aren’t even checking into the options. In many cases they would save many thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars over the course of the loan.
Some borrowers believe they have plenty of time to get in on the lower rates, or even that the rates will go lower. With rates at their lowest in well over 50 years, it seems like wishful thinking to imagine them going even lower. Sure, we may be in some kind of new era with the baby boom entering their 60′s. No one can predict what the long term effect of so many folks going into retirement and downsizing might do to housing or mortgages. On the other hand the short term (3 year) horizon has almost every pundit predicting steep increases in rates.
Why will rates go up in the short term. Most economists are predicting that the huge amount of government spending on stimulus and the new health care reform will eventually result in a major inflationary event. Gold is already up, and there are the first evidences of inflationary pressure. When we have inflation, lenders are not inclined to put their money at risk unless they can get a return on their investment at least 3% over inflation. This would suggest that even a moderate inflation of 3% could push mortgage rates back over 6%.
What keeps homeowners from taking advantage of this historic mortgage sale? It is uncertainty more than anything else. There is no logic to staying in a 6% loan if you can get a 30 year fixed for 4.8%. However, logic isn’t always the winner in thinking about your home loan. If you are down to 22 years to pay, it may just seem like you don’t want to start over. Obviously, you can set the loan up for shorter repayments and get even lower rates. But the average consumer has little awareness of how all this works and often just prefers to leave well enough alone.